Win Rate & Expectancy Calculator

Find out whether your trading has an edge. Enter your wins, losses and average win and loss to get your win rate, expectancy per trade, profit factor, the break-even win rate and the Kelly percentage.

Your numbers
Result
Win rate
—
Expectancy per trade
—
Profit factor
—
Average reward : risk
—
Break-even win rate
—
Kelly %
—

The formulas

Win rate          = Wins ÷ Total trades
Expectancy        = (Win rate × Average win) − (Loss rate × Average loss)
Profit factor     = Gross profit ÷ Gross loss
Break-even win %  = 1 ÷ (1 + Reward:risk)
Kelly %           = Win rate − (Loss rate ÷ Reward:risk)

Why win rate alone doesn’t matter

A 40% win rate is profitable if winners are twice the size of losers: 0.4 × 2 − 0.6 × 1 = +0.2R per trade. A 70% win rate loses money if the losers are three times the winners. Expectancy combines both and tells you what a typical trade is worth on average.

Profit factor

Above 1.0 means the strategy made more than it lost. Many traders look for 1.5 or higher over a meaningful number of trades; a handful of trades isn’t enough to judge.

A note on Kelly

The Kelly percentage is the theoretical bet size that maximises long-run growth if your numbers are exactly right. Real results vary, so full Kelly is very aggressive and leads to deep drawdowns; many traders who use it at all take a small fraction of it.

Turn your risk per trade into a position size with the position size calculator, see how losing streaks hurt with the drawdown calculator, or browse all trading calculators. TradingView’s Strategy Tester shows these figures for a backtested strategy.

ChartWatch is independent and not affiliated with TradingView, any broker or exchange. This calculator uses only the numbers you enter and runs in your browser. Results are estimates before taxes and any costs you leave out. It is a calculation tool, not financial advice.

FAQ

How do I calculate my trading win rate?
Divide the number of winning trades by the total number of trades and multiply by 100.
What is a good win rate in trading?
It depends on your reward-to-risk ratio. At 1:1 you need over 50% to profit; at 1:2 about 33.3%; at 1:3 just 25%, before costs.
What is trading expectancy?
The average amount you can expect to win or lose per trade: win rate × average win minus loss rate × average loss.
What is profit factor?
Gross profit divided by gross loss. Above 1 means the strategy made money over the trades measured.
What is the Kelly criterion in trading?
A formula for the theoretical position size that maximises growth: win rate − (loss rate ÷ reward-to-risk). It is very aggressive in practice, so many traders use a fraction of it or none.

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ChartWatch is an independent tool and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or officially connected to TradingView, Inc. “TradingView” is a trademark of its respective owner. Exchange, broker and platform names are trademarks of their respective owners.