Measure a drawdown, see the gain needed to recover it, and find out how deep a losing streak takes your account at your risk per trade.
Drawdown % = (Peak − Trough) ÷ Peak × 100 Gain to recover = Drawdown ÷ (1 − Drawdown) Losing streak DD = 1 − (1 − Risk per trade) ^ Number of losses
After a 50% loss you need a 100% gain just to get back to where you started, because the gain is earned on a smaller balance. A 20% drawdown needs 25%; a 10% drawdown needs 11.1%. The table above shows the curve.
Even good strategies hit losing streaks. At 2% risk per trade, 10 losses in a row is a drawdown of about 18.3%. At 5% it’s about 40%, which needs a 67% gain to recover. That’s why most risk rules keep risk per trade small. Because each loss is a percentage of a shrinking balance, the streak drawdown is a little less than risk × trades.
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